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Jonathan Poyer

Breaking Down of Momentum as a Leading Performance Metric Continues to Influence Biotech Sector




The S&P Select Biotech Index remained above its 50-day moving average to start the week, shrugging off news that Biden will be removed from the presidential election ticket potentially making way for even more progressive healthcare policies. 



Macro forces remain in focus with massive rotations ongoing motivated by the growing disinflation narrative and expected Fed policy pivot. Earnings season will do much to determine if the momentum unwind will persist and if value / small caps can sustain the move higher.


Regulatory:


  • Agenus (AGEN) shares were under pressure after disclosing FDA discouraged the company from pursuing accelerated approval for its immunotherapy combination in colorectal cancer since objective response rate may not translate to a survival benefit. The company agreed on a Phase 3 trial design and dose to seek regular approval



Clinical:


  • Roche (RHHBY) rallied on disclosure oral GLP-1 weight loss candidate CT-966 showed 6.1% placebo adjusted weight loss after 4 weeks in an early stage trial.  Details were limited, but no unexpected safety signals were observed



Corporate Updates & Earnings:


  • Novartis AG (NVS) reported quarterly results that came in ahead of expectations on revenue ($12.5 B vs street $12.37 B) and adjusted earnings ($1.97 vs street $1.89), but maintained 2024 revenue guidance despite raising the earnings forecast.  Sales of closely watched radiopharmaceutical medication Pluvicto came in >5% light



  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q2 results were above consensus sales estimates and delivered a $0.11 beat on EPS driven by Innovative Medicine (9.0% growth) while MedTech growth was softer (4.0% growth).  FY24 revenue growth outlook reiterated, but adjusted EPS guidance lowered due to recent M&A



  • Cassava Sciences (SAVA) fell >30% on news CEO Remi Barbier and SVP Neuroscience Lindsay Burns resigned.  SAVA shares have been subject to heightened scrutiny since the DOJ indicted embattled scientific advisor and author of foundational simufilam papers Haou-Yan Wang on major fraud, wire fraud and false statements




Culling the Herd:


  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) announced the discontinuation of preclinical research activities associated with CAR-NK and a workforce reduction of 21 positions to extend the cash runway by ~6 months into 2H26



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